What Are the Odds of a Rookie Winning NBA MVP?

As the NBA season gets underway, there are always a few players who stand out as potential MVP candidates. But what are the odds of a rookie winning MVP?

Introduction

In the NBA, winning MVP is often seen as a player’s ultimate individual achievement. An MVP trophy cements a player’s legacies and can propel them to super-stardom. In recent years, we’ve seen players like Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and LeBron James win MVP honors. But what are the odds of a rookie winning MVP?

In the history of the NBA, only three rookies have ever won MVP: Wilt Chamberlain in 1960, Wes Unseld in 1968, andting Damian Lillard in 2013. So, the odds of a rookie winning MVP are pretty slim—less than 1%.

Rookies have a lot of hurdles to overcome to be in contention for MVP. They’re up against players who have been in the league for years and have established themselves as some of the best players in the world. Furthermore, rookies usually don’t start for their teams—they come off the bench and play limited minutes. So, it’s rare for a rookie to make a significant enough impact to be in consideration for MVP.

However, every once in awhile, a rookie comes along and defy the odds. These are typically players who are exceptionally talented and make an immediate impact on their team. Players like Chamberlain, Unseld, and Lillard were all able to do this and win MVP as rookies.

If you’re a fan of a team with a promising rookie, then you might want toRoot for then to win Rookie of The Year—it’s much more likely (about 25%). But don’t get your hopes too high for them to take home MVP honors— it’s just not very likely to happen.

What are the odds of a rookie winning NBA MVP?

Rookie players in the NBA have a very slim chance of winning the Most Valuable Player award. In the history of the NBA, only one rookie has ever won the MVP award, and that was in the 1950-1951 season. In the last 20 years, there have been no rookies that have won the MVP award.

What are the odds of a rookie drafted in the lottery winning NBA MVP?

There have been 19 rookies drafted in the lottery who have gone on to win NBA MVP. The most recent was Derrick Rose in 2009. Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook are the only other players to have won the award in the last 10 years.

So, what are the odds of a rookie drafted in the lottery winning NBA MVP?

Well, it depends on a few factors. First, it depends on how good the player is. Obviously, the better the player is, the better his chances of winning MVP. Second, it depends on how lucky the player is.For example, if a player is drafted by a bad team and has no chance of winning MVP, his odds are obviously worse than a player who is drafted by a good team and has a realistic chance of winning MVP.

And finally, it depends on how much competition there is for MVP. If there are five transcendent players in the league (like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, etc.), then obviously a rookie’s chances of winning MVP are slim. But if there are only two or three truly great players in the league (like in 2006 when Steve Nash won MVP), then a rookie’s chances obviously go up.

All things being equal (i.e., same skill level, same luck, same competition), I would say that the odds of a rookie drafted in the lottery winning MVP are about 5-10%.

What are the odds of a rookie not drafted in the lottery winning NBA MVP?

What are the odds of a rookie not drafted in the lottery winning NBA MVP?

It’s happened before, but it’s certainly not common. In fact, since the NBA instituted the draft lottery in 1985, it has only happened twice: when Damian Lillard won the award in 2013 and when Ben Simmons won it in 2018.

So, what are the odds of a rookie not drafted in the lottery winning NBA MVP? We took a look at every NBA MVP since 1985 to find out.

Since 1985, there have been 33 NBA MVPs. Of those, 23 were drafted in the lottery and 10 were not.

Looking at it another way, there have been 1,134 lottery picks since 1985 (not counting international players or players who were drafted, but never played in the NBA). Of those 1,134 picks, only 23 have gone on to win MVP – that’s just 2%.

On the other hand, 10 out of 485 non-lottery picks have gone on to win MVP – that’s just over 2%. So, while it is slightly more likely for a non-lottery pick to win MVP than a lottery pick, the difference is not significant.

In other words, your odds of a rookie not drafted in the lottery winning NBA MVP are about 50/50.

Conclusion

In the end, it is clear that the odds are against a rookie winning the MVP award. However, it is not impossible, as several players have shown in recent years. If a player is exceptional enough, they may be able to overcome the odds and take home the prestigious honor.