538 Baseball Predictions for the Upcoming Season

Here are my 538 predictions for the upcoming baseball season

538’s predictions for the top 5 teams in each division

The MLB season is just around the corner, and 538 has already released their predictions for the standings. Here are their picks for the top five teams in each division:

AL East:
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals

AL West:
1 Houston Astros 54-28 (.658) 98-64 (12) 93-69 (9) 84-78 (13) 97-65 (9) 86-74 (10) 90-72 (9) 94-68 (8) 93-69 (10) 86-76 (11) 91-71 (9) 87-75 (11) 85 of 162 0 – 0 0 – 0 2562 2698 14%*MAY 20, 2021 $54M OPTION FOR Red Sox WITH A $2M BUYOUT DUE TO AN INCREASED SALARY CAP*BRUTAL SCHEDULE EARLY AND A STRONG DIVISION PLAYING INTO THEIR UNLIKELY SLUMP*22 PLAYERS WITH 5+ WAR CONTRIBUTION IN 2019 WERE either FA signings or MINORS PROMOTIONS NOT INCLUDED ON 2019 Opening Day ROSTER*PREDICTED PAYROLL BELOW THE LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD OF $208M FOR 2020*DECLINING PRODUCTIVITY FROM AGING CORE PLAYERS COUPLED WITH HIGH CONTRACT VALUES LIMIT FUTURE FLEXIBILITY AS WELL AS PAYROLL SPACE FOR 2021 AND BEYOND*RELYING ON A LOT OF BOUNCEBACKS AND REBOUNDS FROM KEY PERFORMERS; TWINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A MORE FAVORABLE Strength of Schedule IN 2020 COMPARED TO THEIR AL CENTRAL PEERS*WILL FACE ONE OF THE EASIEST SCHEDULES IN BASEBALL THIS YEAR, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON WHEN THEY’LL MISS OUT ON SEVERAL GOOD TEAMS FROM THEIR OWN DIVISION*ACQUIRING GEORGE SPRINGER AND CARLOS CORREA GIVES HOUSTON AN IMPRESSIVE OFFENSE, BUT THEIR PITCHING STAFF HAS BEEN DEPLETED BY KEY DEPARTURES AND THEY ARE GROUNDED BY FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS *LOST JAVIER BÁEZ AND Kris Bryant TO SIGNIFICANT INJURIES, BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH TALENT TO PREVAIL IN A WEAK NL CENTRAL *STRENGTH UP THE MIDDLE, INCLUDING CY Young Award winner JAKE Arrieta , SHOULD POWER THE CUBS PAST THE CARDINALS *TWO young stars RETURN FROM SERIOUS Knee injuries THAT SIDELINED THEM FOR MUCH OF 2019 *front office HAS FOCUSED MORE ON WINNING NOW BY TRADING AWAY PROSPECTS OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, SO THERE IS SOME RISK LONG TERM IF THOSE MOVES DON’T PAY OFF QUICKLY ENOUGH *TRYing to stay afloat in a very tough al west while waiting for some of their expensive veterans to get healthy and produce *TWO BIG OFFSEASON ADDITIONS SHOULD HELP THEM COMPETE FOR A Wild Card SPOT *

538’s predictions for the teams that will make the playoffs

The FiveThirtyEight baseball forecasting model is a slightly more complicated version of the classic Pythagorean Theorem which states that a team’s record is determined by the difference in their run differential (the number of runs scored minus the number of runs allowed) and their actual winning percentage. The FiveThirtyEight model uses data from Baseball-Reference.com and more sophisticated statistical methods to make its predictions.

Our model currently gives the Chicago Cubs a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs the best odds of any Team In Baseball The Houston Astros (26 percent), Washington Nationals (22 percent), Los Angeles Dodgers (19 percent) and Boston Red Sox (17 percent) round out the top five.

538’s predictions for the World Series winner

The website gives the Houston Astros a 27% chance of winning the World Series the best odds in baseball. The New York Yankees have a 19% chance of winning, according to the website’s projections.

538’s predictions for the AL and NL MVPs

As the baseball season approaches, 538 has made their predictions for who they believe will take home the MVP honors in both the American and National Leagues.

In the AL, they are predicting that Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels will win his 3rd MVP Award They give him a 36% chance of winning, which is the highest of any player in either league. They believe that Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Indians and Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros are also strong contenders, with each having a 17% chance of winning.

In the NL, they are predicting that Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs will win his 2nd MVP award They give him a 29% chance of winning, which is again the highest of any player in either league. They believe that Paul Goldschmidt of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies are also strong contenders, with each having a 23% chance of winning.

538’s predictions for the top prospects who will make an impact in the upcoming season

There are a lot of great young players in the MLB right now, and it’s going to be an exciting season. 538 has made their predictions for the top prospects who will make an impact in the upcoming season

There are a few things to keep in mind when looking at these predictions. First, 538’s algorithms are based on data from past seasons. So, while they are very accurate, they are not perfect. Second, these predictions are for the entire season, not just for opening day So, if a player is injured or doesn’t perform well early on, they may still end up having a great season.

With that said, here are 538’s predictions for the top prospects who will make an impact in the upcoming season

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
2. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
3. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox
4. Nick Senzel, 3B/2B/OF, Cincinnati Reds
5. Bo Bichette, SS/2B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

538’s predictions for the top 5 breakout players of the upcoming season

538 has come out with their predictions for the top 5 breakout players of the upcoming season They are as follows:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2. Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
3. Juan Soto Washington Nationals
4. Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
5. Gleyber Torres New York Yankees

538’s predictions for the top 5 busts of the upcoming season

There are always a handful of busts in every MLB season Players that are overhyped and end up disappointing fantasy baseball owners. 538 has predicted the top 5 busts of the upcoming season so that you can be prepared.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2. Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
3. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
4. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
5. Manny Machado San Diego Padres

538’s predictions for the top 5 sleeper teams of the upcoming season

In every sport, there are a few teams that fly under the radar and manage to outperform expectations. These are the teams that 538’s model is most bullish on for the upcoming baseball season

538’s predictions for the top 5 players who will be traded during the season

According to 538’s ball predictions the top 5 players who will be traded during the season are:
1. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
2. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
3. Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
4. Madison Bumgarner San Francisco Giants
5. Sonny Gray Cincinnati Reds

538’s predictions for the top 5 storylines to watch during the upcoming season

1. The Astros will win the World Series
2. The Red Sox will win the AL East
3. The Yankees will miss the playoffs
4. Bryce Harper will sign with the Phillies
5. The Nationals will trade for a starting pitcher